Out at the Top
It’s axiomatic to the professionals that leaving when the game is good just because you’re up a few dollars is unforgivable. But today I’m doing just that. Out at the top and leave hundreds of dollars unliberated in the hands of chip-spewing fools.
Why? Nicholas Taleb makes the point beautifully in Fooled By Randomness: Losing hurts a hell of a lot more than winning gives joy. Pain and pleasure are processed in different parts of the brain and are by no means symmetrical. Don’t keep count is Taleb’s mantra, at least, keep count as rarely as you can get away with. He gives the example of a hypothetical dentist-turned-retired stockholder. While his portfolio might grow 10% over the course of a year, its value will fluctuate daily. If he monitors its every second, he will receive a huge number of ‘bad’ shocks which will outweigh a slightly greater number of ‘good’ shocks. Look every week and the ratio might be 30/22 good to bad, but still 22 weeks of despondency. Once a quarter is better, once a year might be best.
Similarly in poker, you are forced to constantly monitor your stack and take decisions that, the majority of the time leave it slightly smaller than it was but are still long-run profitable …. value raising AT suited with five limpers, calling a turn bet into a 10BB pot with six outs, bet-folding a rivered ace against a rampant TAG. Got to do it, but it keeps hurting. And it has been hurting so much that I start to wonder if I can keep making those paper-thin value bets - which means I’m wondering if I can keep playing profitably.
So after seeing so many good sessions turn bad I need to refresh my memories of successful play, so as to have something to hold on to next time things go bad. Get out with a profit. Don’t try maximising, just settle for what’s there and keep slowly building the bankroll. Psychologically that’s got to help create a feeling that won’t disappear the next time a session turns ugly.